Measure a representative section using the actual export settings, then extrapolate to the full timeline. This is a planning calculation based on your sample. It is not a hardware benchmark or a guarantee of a completion time.
How the calculation works
Estimated export seconds = full timeline seconds × sample export seconds ÷ sample timeline seconds. The lower and upper values apply the variation percentage you enter to that estimate. That percentage is your assumption, not a statistical confidence interval or a measured error bound.
Worked example
A 60-second section that exports in 45 seconds gives an export factor of 0.75. A 600-second timeline extrapolates to 450 seconds, or 7 minutes 30 seconds. An assumed variation of 20% produces a planning range of 360–540 seconds. The rest of the timeline can still fall outside it.
Before using the result
Choose samples containing the project’s actual effects, transitions and difficult media. Keep resolution, codec, quality mode, renderer and cache state consistent. A simple intro may underrepresent a denoised or composited sequence. Export startup, thermal throttling, memory pressure and uneven effects are not modeled. Remeasure after a significant settings change.
Keep the source values with your project notes. A number calculated from an assumed bitrate or representative sample is only as useful as that assumption. Check a real file or measured export when a deadline, upload cap or storage purchase depends on the answer.

